Thursday, June 21, 2018

Chinese made RC supplies- Price Hikes on the way?!?!


Face it, we're reliant on China.


Image result for made in china

As anybody who's been into the RC Hobby for least the past decade or two knows, we're in the golden years of the hobby when it comes to price and quality.   We're getting some unbelievable quality products at insane prices.  It doesn't matter if you buy it directly from China on websites like Banggood or if you go through your local hobby store a lot of what is being offered is being manufactured in China.  True there are other Asian countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea as well as perhaps a bit from Japan.  But the one that stands out the most is China.  A lot of the world's newest manufacturing equipment for everything from RC parts, electronics, and even the clamshell packaging it comes in is manufactured in China. We've come to depend on China.


Image result for large plastics plant in china




Simple law of supply and demand


The new manufacturing equipment is capable of turning out merchandise so efficiently, at low costs and beyond acceptable quality that the law of supply and demand kicks in.   There is far more supply than demand. If a small 9g metal gear servo costs $15 each you'll most likely buy a set for your next plane build.   If it's $150 each you'll most likely find a new hobby.  But when they are under $3 each you'll likely stock up in case you want to build a new plane sometime later this year.   It's because of this ability to supply far more than there is demand that the prices have stayed very low.

The two vendors I've been watching the most is Banggood and HobbyKing.   What I've noticed was that the lowest prices I've seen were around the holiday season.   In places like Australia it may be summertime, but for a good portion of the world people aren't out flying as bitter cold winters keep people indoors.

 When it comes to these seasonal lower prices I believe that a few factors are at work.  Retailers stock up on inventory for the holiday season, but realize that by mid-November that if Americans haven't ordered they most likely won't get the shipments before Christmas.  I also believe retailers like Banggood may slash prices because of low seasonal demand, and the need to reduce inventory before the end of the year.

C1 Chaser 1200mm Wingspan EPO Flying Wing FPV Racer Aircraft RC Airplane KIT

A case in point, the C1 Chaser is a very nice plane. Around the holiday it was selling for under $40 including shipping, now in the summertime, the price has gone up to over $60 including shipping here in the United States. That's a 50% price increase!

Another example, HobbyKing's Teksumo.
H-King Teksumo EPP Wing 900mm (35") (Cerulean Blue) (Kit)
This plane has traditionally been in the high 30's and low 40s.  It's now $50  sold and shipped in the United States. During the last holiday season, it was listed in the low 30s and was closed out in the old Orange color at $28.

The price has been in the $50 range for the majority of the year which means one of two things.  First, people are paying that price.  Or second, they have a fairly good inventory building up and will cut prices after summer and especially toward the end of the year.


The increasing prices may be a sign of an improving world economy and an increase in demand for RC products.  The US dollar to Chinese yuan has been changing.  The yuan has been gaining in value which means that it takes more US Dollars to buy the same Chinese made product as it did just a little while ago. 

As consumers, you're frustrated with the higher prices. But the retailer may not be keeping more money on there end either.   The differences are quite literally lost in financial transactions of changing dollars to yuan.

I don't believe China has a supply issue with many aspects of our hobby.    Most of the products made in China such as brushless motors and servos are to the point where they are commodities.   I've seen them sell out from time to time only to be restocked again within a week or two. If the world demand for 9g metal gear servos doubled overnight I have no doubt that China could figure out how to meet the demand. There are many factories in China all hungry for orders. EPP/EPO foam planes may be a different story because they are CNC machine cut.  These are usually made in batches and I've seen where a sale item puts the major online retailers out of stock for weeks if not longer as more production is scheduled.   I have noticed a definite price creep in EPP and EPO foam planes since the start of the year.  The good news is that our hobby is growing worldwide. The bad news is that increased demand is hitting us in the pocketbook.

Image result for trade war


The possibility of a US/China trade war.


China and the United States are the top two world economies.  China has more citizens than the United States but sells far more than it buys from the United States.  This is a huge issue for the current US administration.  They started to focus on Solar Panels made in China, and Chinese steel sold in the United States to put additional tariffs on.  China said they would retaliate by doing the same on US products.   Also at issue as well are violations by Chinese companies of international patents and allegations of currency manipulation.   Ultimately, what this all means is anything from a war of words that ends with a new trade deal in a few weeks between the US and China all the way to starting a worldwide recession.   Anything is possible, nothing can be accurately predicted.


Are prices about to skyrocket?


Are the prices of RC products going to skyrocket if you're an American?  Doubtful.  But the combination of a strengthening yuan combined with potential new tariffs along with higher demand for everything RC could spell out higher prices for RC products in the next couple of months. 

Suggestions


We're in peak season for demand.  Even the sales prices aren't all that special. The US midterm elections are in November and a heated trade war with China wouldn't play out well on election day.   My feeling is that unless you can find a sweet deal on a Chinese made plane this may not be the time to buy.   Perhaps it's time to check out reviews and consider what models you would like to add to your collection toward the end of the years.  I believe that RC planes are price sensitive and the higher prices on our end will be met with less orders. 

You may live in a country where the value of your currency is gaining over the yuan.  In that case things may look wondeful for you for the rest of the year.  Still, I expect that the best deals will be during the holiday season.

This is a good time to check your supply of consumables such as props, speed controllers, receivers, batteries. and servos.  You may want to keep enough on hand to keep you going for the next six months.  The prices on these things don't seem to have fluctuate as much as they have on foam planes.   Just keep a healthy inventory should supply issues arise.


There are other countries than China


Things like motors, props and batteries come out of China.  But, there are foam planes that come from all over the world.  Hacker makes planes in Czech Republic (I love their products!). I've seen planes made in Malaysia and Vietnam.  There are also regional plane makers. In the United States there are custom planes by Sweep Wings, Crash Test Hobbies and one of my favorites, Flying Foam.  There are also DIY plane instructions for planes made out of Dollar Tree Foam.  And let's not forget 3D printed planes. This may be a good time to find alternates for just the foam of the plane as the other components of the plane seem to be readily available from China at prices in-line with what they normally are.
I have also noticed that companies like Horizon Hobbies have put certain models on sale.  You can always check around for a good deal. 
Image result for balsa wood plane kits

If you're so inclined there are many balsa wood kits (and pre-made planes) sitting on shelves gathering dust that can be purchased fairly inexpensively by private parties looking to clean out a garage. 

One other thing.

Don't be surprised if the yuan takes a sudden nosedive.  Let's just say that China knows how to keep the value of its currency low.   But I would expect this to be more reactionary the preemptive. 

There are way too many moving pieces. I don't expect that a trade war would go on for a long period of time, but it could be something in the news for the rest of the year. Just get ready to ride this one out.  This may be a good time to get around to building those kits sitting around in your garage or selling off the ones you don't want.   This is perhaps a better time to fix or update planes that need attention.

Just keep a few props from each size you frequently fly and on hand and a spare battery in your favorite size on hand.   You never know if a labor strike or issues in transportation could conflate the already sensitive forces in play.  This is not a time to hoard Chinese merchandise but it is time to keep enough supplies around ( a six month supply) in case the supply chain gets interrupted. 

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